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The proposed assignment aims to estimate the prevalence of VAC in Brazil and the loss of productivity over the life cycle of individuals who experienced violence during childhood and adolescence, as an indirect tangible cost, in order to subsidize the estimation of the economic cost of VAC in Brazil conducted by the UNICEF and the Ipea to support evidence-based policy formulation.

The consultancy will employ statistical and econometric methods to conduct quantitative analysis of secondary data from administrative records and nationally representative household surveys, such as the  Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua) and the National Health Survey (PNS), the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Hospitalization Information System (SIH), and Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan), the National System for Socio-Educational Services (Sinase) and the the SUAS Census – Unified Social Assistance System.

It will involve the following expected tasks:

1. Identify and extract relevant data from the administrative records and household surveys to calculate the prevalence of VAC in Brazil by type: homicides, suicides, non-lethal physical assaults, sexual violence, psychological violence, negligence, self-harm.
2. Apply econometric exercises to estimate prevalence rates of different types of violence, using as a reference the approach developed by Cerqueira and Soares in the IPEA Discussion Paper, which explores the integration of different data sources to correct underreporting and produce more accurate estimates.
3. Analyze productivity losses over the life cycle of individuals who experienced violence during childhood and adolescence. Estimate the causal effect of exposure to violence on years of schooling, using data from the 2021 PNAD Contínua. Estimate a life-cycle earnings model to project the counterfactual wage-earning trajectory in the absence of schooling loss, thereby quantifying future productivity loss.
4. Elaborate reports consolidating key findings from the analyses and providing evidence-based policy recommendations. All key assumptions and limitations should be clearly described. The data will complement and provide inputs for the broader study of UNICEF and IPEA on economic costs of VAC and its prevention and response.

The consultant will work in close collaboration with UNICEF and Ipea.

DELIVERABLES

  1. Inception report with preliminary methodology and development of data base necessary to estimate the prevalence of VAC by type.

1.1. Deliverables/Outputs: Inception report containing methodology and preliminary data base organization including SIM/MS, SINAN/MS, PNS/IBGE in order to estimate the prevalence of VAC. prevalence of VAC.

1.2. Deadline: 60 days from the beginning of contract

1.3. Estimate Budget: 30% of total amount

2. Inception report with preliminary methodology and development of data base necessary to estimate losses of productivity over a life cycle (earnings and time).

2.1. Deliverables/Outputs: Inception report containing methodology and preliminary data base organization including including PNADC/IBGE in order to estimate the productivity losses over the life cycle of individuals who experienced violence during childhood and adolescence in Brazil.

2.2. Deadline: 120 days from the beginning of contract

2.3. Estimate Budget: 45% of total amount

3. Final report on prevalence of VAC in Brazil and related indirect tangible costs on productivity loss

3.1. Deliverables/Outputs: A complete final report with consolidated data on prevalence by type and estimate of loss of productivity (earnings and time). The report should include all results, analyses, conclusions, and policy recommendations: executive summary and PPT presentation with results.

3.2. Deadline: 200 days from the beginning of contract

3.3. Estimate Budget: 25% from total amount

DURATION OF CONTRACT: 210 days

MINIMUM QUALIFICATIONS REQUIREMENT

• Advanced university degree (Master’s or higher) in a relevant field such as Economics or related disciplines.
• At least five years of relevant professional experience in microeconometric modelling and in handling microdata from governmental bodies (e.g. Ministry of Health), research experience on crime particularly on VAC. Additional years of experience are considered an asset.
• Demonstrated advanced programming experience in R or Python.
• Knowledge of geospatial analysis software (e.g., GeoDaSpace) is desirable.
• Demonstrated ability to synthesize complex information from diverse sources and produce high-quality, evidence-based reports.
• Ability to read and write technical texts in English.
• Proficiency in developing actionable recommendations based on research findings.
• Ability to deliver high-quality work within tight deadlines and manage multiple tasks effectively.

LANGUAGE PROFICIENCY: Fluency in Portuguese. Excellent written and verbal communication skills in English are necessary.

FINANCIAL PROPOSAL

• A financial proposal including the fee for the assignment based on the deliverables and number of days must be submitted. Consultants are asked to stipulate all-inclusive fees, including lump sum, administrative cost, travel cost and subsistence costs, as applicable.

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REMARKS:

Individuals engaged under a consultancy will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants. Consultants are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws.

 The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts.

All UNICEF positions are advertised, and only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process. An internal candidate performing at the level of the post in the relevant functional area, or an internal/external candidate in the corresponding Talent Group, may be selected, if suitable for the post, without assessment of other candidates.

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