Consultancy Title: Research Consultant – Statistical Analyst

Division/Duty Station: Director’s Office, Programme Group, NYHQ USA

Duration: 1 June 2025 – 31 December 2025

Home/ Office Based: Remote

About UNICEF

If you are a committed, creative professional and are passionate about making a lasting difference for children, the world's leading children's rights organization would like to hear from you. For 70 years, UNICEF has been working on the ground in 190 countries and territories to promote children's survival, protection and development. The world's largest provider of vaccines for developing countries, UNICEF supports child health and nutrition, good water and sanitation, quality basic education for all boys and girls, and the protection of children from violence, exploitation, and AIDS. UNICEF is funded entirely by the voluntary contributions of individuals, businesses, foundations and governments. UNICEF has over 12,000 staff in more than 145 countries.

 

BACKGROUND

Purpose of Activity/ Assignment:

Debt itself is not inherently bad; in fact, it plays a crucial role in effective public finance and for children it can accelerate crucial investments with high and long-term returns. However, when debt obligations grow too large without sufficient or timely economic returns, the negative consequences—such as constrained national budgets—intensify. The effects on children can be particularly severe, while least responsible, they can suffer the greatest consequences as their development is impacted with long term implications for children themselves and economies more broadly. Accordingly, UNICEF is increasingly concerned about the rising burden of national debt and debt service obligations, particularly in lower- and lower-middle-income countries, where shrinking fiscal space threatens social spending and, ultimately, children's rights.

The number of developing countries with public debt exceeding 60% of GDP has risen sharply, from 31 in 2013 to 59 in 2023, and according to the World Bank and IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA)  finds of the 67 low and lower-middle income countries assessed, 10 are in debt distress, 17 at a high risk of distress, with a further 25 considered at moderate risk.

The increasing diversity of creditors in developing countries has made debt restructuring negotiations more complex and contentious. Private creditors now account for 61 per cent of total debt, with bilateral creditors contributing 26 per cent and multilateral institutions 14 per cent. While this diversification has expanded access to financing, it has also complicated restructuring efforts, as it requires aligning the interests of creditors with varying priorities, legal frameworks, and debt management approaches. Notably, bilateral lending is also evolving, with around two-thirds of debt now owed to non-Paris Club lenders, who operate under different principles and conditions for debt relief. At the same time, aid flows are under threat and the increasing use of loans rather than grants are exacerbating challenges in development finance making effective debt management more critical than ever to protect fiscal space for social spending and sustainable development.

The international community has taken steps to improve mechanisms and structures for managing the growing challenges of debt restructuring in this complex landscape. The Common Framework for Debt Treatments is designed to provide timely and comprehensive solutions for countries facing unsustainable debt levels, including the creation of a bilateral creditor committee, including non-Paris Club creditors, as well as mechanisms for integrating private sector creditors into the process. A key step in implementing the Common Framework, with critical implications for children, is the establishment of an IMF program and its spending conditions, which sets economic parameters that shape fiscal policies during debt restructuring. Notably, in a positive shift social safeguards are now explicitly included in IMF programs ensuring some consideration of social implications.

Despite international efforts to improve debt restructuring mechanisms, the situation remains extremely challenging, with children’s outcomes increasingly compromised. Many countries struggling with heavy debt burdens have yet to undergo restructuring, while those that do face lengthy and complex processes. Even after completion, persistent fiscal constraints continue to limit public investment in essential services such as education, health, and social protection, further exacerbating the risks to children’s well-being.

In response to these challenges, UNICEF is undertaking a research program aimed at contributing to policy discussions and the development of actionable responses to better protect children’s rights. This research seeks to (i) assess and articulate the impacts of the current debt situation on children and (ii) explore policy approaches to debt management and restructuring that prioritize child outcomes and the long-term benefits of investing in human capital. To support this work UNICEF is seeking a statistical analyst to support the development of the quantitative analysis for the work. 

Scope of Work:

Macroeconomic data monitoring system with a focus on debt and aid. 

• Develop a cross-country database that brings together debt, aid, social spending and other macroeconomic indicators debt with household wellbeing and child outcome data. Include time series as possible. Global/regional/country grouping aggregates to be included as relevant.

• Use available international sources, complementing them with other compiled national and other sources as available and needed to fill gaps.  

• Meticulously document sources and relevant notes on sources and indictors. 
• Liase internally and externally to ensure data is up-to-date and all relevant sources are being used. 

• Undertake descriptive analysis of the dataset to understand and communicate debt, aid and other macroeconomic data on one hand and household wellbeing and child outcome data on the other.
• Contribute to briefing notes and papers drawing on the data and analysis

Terms of Reference / Key Deliverables:

Work Assignment Overview/Deliverables and Outputs/Delivery deadline

1.  Creation of the initial database

- Complete outreach activities to at least 10 internal and external stakeholders, documented in an outreach log.

- Deliver an initial database with at least 80% completeness of targeted macroeconomic, microeconomic, and child-specific data categories.

- Provide a detailed summary report outlining the number of sources identified, contacted, and included in the initial database

30 June 2025

2.  Creation of final database

-  Deliver a fully operational database integrating macro, micro, and child data, with 100% of targeted data points validated

-  Ensure the database supports analysis for a minimum of 15 countries, includes at least two cross-country comparisons, and provides data for at least three aggregated regional analyses

-  Submit a comprehensive data dictionary and user guide documenting all data fields and integration procedures

30 July 2025

3. Initial analysis of debt situation

-  Provide a comprehensive analysis covering debt service. Use appropriate categorisation and grouping

30 August 2025

4.  Initial analysis of social spending

- Add key social spending indicators for all included countries

-  Generate at least five visual graphs highlighting critical debt and social spending relationships

-  Submit a descriptive analytical report explicitly connecting social spending, debt service indicators, and child outcomes, covering at least three identified risks or vulnerabilities

30 September 2025

5. Integration of additional data

-  Identify and integrate at least 10 additional relevant academic or grey literature data sources

-  Ensure data integration completeness increases database coverage

-  Submit detailed documentation listing all additional sources and methodologies for integration

30 October 2025

6.  Drafting of comprehensive paper

-  Deliver a 15-20 page analytical paper meeting specific analytical objectives on debt, social spending, and child outcomes

-  Include at least 10 illustrative graphs or tables, clearly labelled and explained

-  Address and analyze at least five measurable child welfare and development risk indicators

30 November 2025

7.  Finalisation of analysis and manuscript Development

-  Prepare and deliver a manuscript approved for publication, incorporating at least two rounds of reviewer feedback

- Include at least five final visualizations (graphs/tables), comprehensive referencing with 100% source validation, and methodological transparency clearly documented

-  Provide detailed response documentation addressing reviewer and publisher comments to facilitate the manuscript's final acceptance

30 December 2025

Qualifications

Education: Advanced university degree in economics, development economics statistics or a related field

Knowledge/Expertise/Skills required *:

- Master's or higher in Economics, Statistics, Development Economics, or a related field.- At least 5 years' experience in statistical analysis of macroeconomic data, debt, aid, or public finance.

- Proficiency in statistical software (Stata, R, Python) and advanced Excel.

- Familiarity with debt sustainability frameworks, social spending, and child-focused development economics.

- Strong analytical writing and data visualization skills, with experience producing clear policy briefs or analytical papers.

- Fluency in English (verbal and written)

Requirements:

Completed profile in UNICEF's e-Recruitment system and

- Upload copy of academic credentials

- Financial proposal that will include/ reflect :

• • the costs per each deliverable and the total lump-sum for the whole assignment (in US$) to undertake the terms of reference.
  • travel costs and daily subsistence allowance, if internationally recruited or travel is required as per TOR.
  • Any other estimated costs: visa, health insurance, and living costs as applicable.
  • Indicate your availability

- Any emergent / unforeseen duty travel and related expenses will be covered by UNICEF.

- At the time the contract is awarded, the selected candidate must have in place current health insurance coverage.

- Payment of professional fees will be based on submission of agreed satisfactory deliverables. UNICEF reserves the right to withhold payment in case the deliverables submitted are not up to the required standard or in case of delays in submitting the deliverables on the part of the consultant.

U.S. Visa information:

With the exception of the US Citizens, G4 Visa and Green Card holders, should the selected candidate and his/her household members reside in the United States under a different visa, the consultant and his/her household members are required to change their visa status to G4, and the consultant’s household members (spouse) will require an Employment Authorization Card (EAD) to be able to work, even if he/she was authorized to work under the visa held prior to switching to G4.  

Only shortlisted candidates will be contacted and advance to the next stage of the selection process

For every Child, you demonstrate…

UNICEF’s core values of Commitment, Diversity and Integrity and core competencies in Communication, Working with People and Drive for Results. View our competency framework at: Here

UNICEF offers reasonable accommodation for consultants/individual contractors with disabilities. This may include, for example, accessible software, travel assistance for missions or personal attendants. We encourage you to disclose your disability during your application in case you need reasonable accommodation during the selection process and afterwards in your assignment. 

UNICEF has a zero-tolerance policy on conduct that is incompatible with the aims and objectives of the United Nations and UNICEF, including sexual exploitation and abuse, sexual harassment, abuse of authority and discrimination. UNICEF also adheres to strict child safeguarding principles. All selected candidates will be expected to adhere to these standards and principles and will therefore undergo rigorous reference and background checks. Background checks will include the verification of academic credential(s) and employment history. Selected candidates may be required to provide additional information to conduct a background check. 

Remarks:  

Individuals engaged under a consultancy will not be considered “staff members” under the Staff Regulations and Rules of the United Nations and UNICEF’s policies and procedures and will not be entitled to benefits provided therein (such as leave entitlements and medical insurance coverage). Their conditions of service will be governed by their contract and the General Conditions of Contracts for the Services of Consultants. Consultants are responsible for determining their tax liabilities and for the payment of any taxes and/or duties, in accordance with local or other applicable laws. 

The selected candidate is solely responsible to ensure that the visa (applicable) and health insurance required to perform the duties of the contract are valid for the entire period of the contract. Selected candidates are subject to confirmation of fully-vaccinated status against SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) with a World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed vaccine, which must be met prior to taking up the assignment. It does not apply to consultants who will work remotely and are not expected to work on or visit UNICEF premises, programme delivery locations or directly interact with communities UNICEF works with, nor to travel to perform functions for UNICEF for the duration of their consultancy contracts